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The Evolving Dynamics of the Iran-Israel Rivalry

The Iran-Israel rivalry is one of the most significant conflicts in the Middle East, characterised by complex geopolitical shifts that have transformed both nations' relations over the decades. Understanding this rivalry requires a look back at their history, tracing their journey from covert allies to sworn enemies.



A Pragmatic Alliance

In the decades leading up to the 1979 Islamic Revolution, Iran and Israel maintained a pragmatic alliance. Under Israel's "Periphery Doctrine," the two countries collaborated against shared threats such as Soviet expansion and Arab nationalism. They engaged in oil trade and even partnered on a secret missile development project called "Project Flower," showcasing a level of cooperation that seems unimaginable today.



The 1979 Turning Point

The 1979 Islamic Revolution dramatically changed the geopolitical landscape. With Ayatollah Khomeini's rise to power, all ties between Iran and Israel were severed. Khomeini famously labeled Israel the "Lesser Satan," marking the beginning of a bitter rivalry. However, the ongoing Iran-Iraq War in the 1980s saw Iran reluctantly engage in some back-channel arms deals with Israel to ensure its survival during a turbulent time.



The Rise of Adversity

Separated by a significant distance, Iran sought to establish the "Axis of Resistance," projecting its power through proxy forces. Following Israel's 1982 invasion of Lebanon, Iran's Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) began to train and arm Hezbollah, marking the beginning of a new phase in their relations. This proxy strategy soon extended beyond Lebanon, as seen in the devastating bombings orchestrated by Hezbollah in Argentina during the early 1990s, which left over 100 people dead.



The Covert Battlefield

To counter Iran's advancing nuclear program without escalating to full-blown war, Israel initiated a series of covert operations known as the "Campaign Between the Wars." Between 2010 and 2020, several high-profile Iranian nuclear scientists were assassinated, with the most notorious being Mohsen Fakhrizadeh, who fell victim to a sophisticated AI-controlled weapon in 2020.



Israel's intelligence operations also included remarkable heists, such as the infiltration of a secure Tehran warehouse in 2018, where Mossad operatives managed to smuggle out a substantial amount of classified nuclear documents in a single night.



Cyber Warfare and Escalation

The conflict also ushered in a new era of state-on-state cyber warfare. In 2020, Iranian hackers tried to manipulate chlorine levels in Israeli water infrastructure, prompting a retaliatory cyberattack from Israel that incapacitated operations at Iran's Shahid Rajaee seaport.


This "Shadow War" escalated sharply in April 2024 when an Israeli airstrike targeted an Iranian consulate in Damascus, killing high-ranking IRGC commanders. Iran responded with its first missile and drone strikes against Israeli territory, marking a new and dangerous chapter in their rivalry.



The Twelve-Day War and The Aftermath


In June 2025, Israel launched "Operation Rising Lion," leading to the short but intense Twelve-Day War. Utilizing pre-positioned munitions and deep-cover operatives, Israel effectively dismantled parts of the IRGC command structure. The situation reached a climax in February 2026 when Israel executed "Operation Epic Fury," a massive coordinated campaign with the U.S. that resulted in nearly 900 strikes across Iran and the assassination of Iran's Supreme Leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei.


The aftermath was chaos, as Iran's decentralized proxies, including Hezbollah and militias in Iraq and Yemen, retaliated with missile and drone assaults. Furthermore, Iran deployed its "mosquito fleet" to threaten global shipping in the strategically crucial Strait of Hormuz.



Conclusion

The evolution of the Iran-Israel rivalry is a stark reminder of how geopolitical landscapes can shift. What began as an alliance between two nations has transformed into one of the most contentious and dangerous conflicts in the Middle East. Understanding the historical context and the factors that led to this rivalry is crucial for anyone interested in the complexities of Middle Eastern geopolitics today.

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